Someone very kindly let me have WKO files of their recent Marmotte rides. These are especially interesting because they were all done between 7:05 and 7:45 hours (so pretty much in my target zone) and source of the files admits he is, like me, not the best descender.
I used these to compare with my guesstimate of power that would be needed to do the ride in around 7:30. I guessed (normalised power taken from climbs of mountains already done with similar profile)
Glandon 245W
Telegraphe 247W
Galibier 264W
Alpe D'Huez 249W
The actuals were
Glandon 260W
Telegraphe 257W
Galibier 234W
Alpe D'Huez 255W
so very much in the same area. Average NP for the whole ride was 240W which is tough but does not seem impossible (I did 9 hours at 220W on my epic post Raid Pyreneen 5000m day.) Further comfort comes from knowing that after 5:30 of the Tour of the Black Mountains I was able to comfortably do a 20minute climb at 266W while keeping some in reserve as another 40 minutes of cycling followed.
One slight wobbler is the fact that to compare like for like I will need to lose 4-5kg to get down to 70kg, while keeping power at same level.
Other minor concern is that the 2008 Marmotte goes up Croix de Fer rather than Glandon which adds a bit of distance and climbing. So goal got just a bit tougher.
Still helps focus training and for upcoming sportives gives me some specific targets in terms of climbing power and overall ride power.
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